By Aishma Gul
“A fire lit far off still sends sparks to our doorsteps.”
The Middle East—home to ancient cultures and modern power struggles—once again stands at the brink of a larger war. As long-standing hostilities between Iran and Israel spill into open military clashes, the fallout threatens an already shaky world order. For Pakistan, lying between South Asia and the Middle East, this growing crisis brings a tangle of economic, security, and diplomatic difficulties that call for a clear-headed and firm approach. This article looks at the serious, varied impacts on Pakistan, covering its quick actions, the tough choices it faces, and how it might help calm tensions even as global legal norms weaken, weapons races heat up, and nuclear deterrence shows cracks.
Historical Background of the Dispute
This latest direct clash is the most dangerous episode yet in a rivalry that goes back decades. Before 1979, Iran and Israel had fairly warm relations. But after the Islamic Revolution, Iran’s new leadership broke ties, took a hard line against Israel, and backed groups like the PLO. Iran says its nuclear work aims only at peaceful energy, a claim that U.S. officials have sometimes supported. Yet Israel views Iran’s program as an “existential threat,” even though the IAEA hasn’t found proof Iran is building bombs. Israel’s past strikes on Iranian scientists and facilities have only deepened mistrust. Meanwhile, Iran has backed Hezbollah and Hamas as part of an “axis of resistance” against Israel. Israel hit back with air raids in Syria and covert operations. What began as a proxy struggle turned direct when, in April 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran responded with missiles; after the MSC Aries was seized, both sides exchanged further attacks. Israel accuses Iran of planning genocide, while Iran says Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
The Latest Flare-Up
By aiming at high-ranking commanders and nuclear experts—and then firing missiles in return—both sides show they’re ready to push toward all-out war. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” a “massive wave of attacks” on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, even striking some residential zones and killing senior officers, scientists, and reportedly children. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it necessary to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.” Yet some Israeli analysts and international law scholars doubted there was an immediate danger justifying these strikes under self-defence. In answer, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Israel to “expect severe punishment,” and President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran had a “legal and legitimate” right to hit back, vowing Israel would “regret” its actions. Iran then launched missile attacks that caused explosions in Tel Aviv and Tehran. Around the world, reactions split: U.S. President Donald Trump praised Israel, China urged caution at the U.N., and the IAEA called for “maximum restraint,” stressing that only talks and diplomacy can end this safely.
Pakistan’s Official View and Early Moves
Pakistan’s firm denouncement of Israel’s strikes, paired with quick steps to keep its people safe, shows it stands with Iran on issues of national sovereignty and international law while protecting its citizens amid growing danger. Pakistan called the attacks “unjustified and illegitimate aggression,” and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar voiced strong solidarity with Iran. The Foreign Office said these strikes broke Iran’s sovereignty and international rules, posing “a grave danger and a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the entire region and beyond.” Pakistan backs Iran’s right to self-defence under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter—a stance backed by Parliament. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari echoed these words, urging the U.N. to step in and hold Israel accountable. The Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F) held a “million march” against Israel, and its leader called for unity among Muslims. On the ground, Pakistan set up a crisis cell in the Foreign Office, evacuated over 450 pilgrims and 150 students from Iran, and issued a travel warning.
Why This Matters for Pakistan
Though far from the border, the Iran-Israel conflict carries real threats for Pakistan, adding to its internal security issues—especially in Balochistan—and piling on economic strains.
Economic Fragility
Pakistan’s shaky economy—high debt, rising inflation, and low tax income—means any shock could derail its slow recovery and fuel unrest. Peace is vital, as Pakistan edges toward economic collapse. Since June 13, 2025, oil prices jumped about 7%, with Brent crude closing at $74.23 a barrel. As a major oil importer, Pakistan faces higher import bills, a widening current account gap, and faster inflation, which hit both consumers and manufacturers. If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, global energy costs will climb, adding to Pakistan’s woes. Big projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline could stall. Even with reforms, Pakistan’s comeback remains “perilously fragile,” with 42.3% of people in poverty and another 1.8 million likely to fall below the line in FY 2025. Public debt is high, inflation is volatile, and the budget shortfall is near 6.7% of GDP. Funds meant for health, education, and reforms would be diverted to cover economic losses or boost defence spending—slowing Pakistan’s progress for years. Prime Minister Sharif has set up a top-level team to track and lessen these impacts.
Security Risks and Border Pressure
The conflict fuels instability along Pakistan’s porous Iranian border, especially in Balochistan, making spillover likely. Full-scale war could bring refugees, straining Pakistan’s limited resources. Militant groups—from Baloch separatists to sectarian outfits—may seize on border chaos. The Baloch insurgency, already ramped up in early 2025 with attacks like the Jaffar Express hijacking and incidents in Karachi, could spread further. In 2024, Pakistan saw 1,081 terror-related deaths, a 45% jump, underlining the ongoing threat from groups such as the TTP. A worst-case “two-front war” could emerge if Iran teams up with India or if ties with Afghanistan sour, squeezing Pakistan strategically. Pakistan’s army praised for its skill and commitment, would face extra strain as it splits focus between counter-terrorism and border security. The growing use of Chinese military equipment also shows Pakistan leaning toward Beijing as Western ties weaken.
Diplomatic Tightrope
Pakistan must juggle ties with Western and Gulf nations that support its economy against religious and ideological solidarity with Iran. Backing Iran too strongly risks U.S. sanctions, including halting key loans. China—Pakistan’s main ally and a big buyer of Iranian oil—may press Islamabad for support or neutrality. Saudi Arabia could also push Pakistan if Iran’s sway expands. At home, strong public sympathy for Palestine and pressure from the Shia community push Pakistan toward Iran. As an OIC member and a nuclear power, Pakistan’s moves are watched closely by all sides.
Pakistan’s Part in Cooling Things Down
Through active diplomacy, stressing talks and sticking to international rules, Pakistan could help ease the crisis, given its ties to both Middle Eastern and global powers. As a nuclear nation and key OIC player, Pakistan can call for peace. Its steady message—condemning violations of international law and backing Iran’s right to defend itself—gives it credibility. In the U.N., Pakistan may defend Iran, push for peace talks, and hold private discussions with other powers, urging restraint and warning against Israel’s heavy-handed tactics in Gaza and Lebanon. The National Assembly has restated Pakistan’s support for dialogue to secure South Asian stability. At home, Pakistan should step up border patrols and surveillance in Balochistan to block militant spillover.
The widening Iran-Israel conflict is at a dangerous crossroads, with big economic, security, and diplomatic consequences for Pakistan. Rising oil prices and trade disruptions threaten its fragile economy. Security risks include border flare-ups, refugee flows, and sectarian strife, which could fuel existing insurgencies. Diplomatically, Pakistan must strike a tough balance between its allies and its solidarity with Iran. Yet despite these hurdles, Pakistan has a chance to play a helpful role—using its diplomatic reach, insistence on dialogue, and strong internal security steps—to guide the region toward a more peaceful path.