By Aishma Gul
The 2024 US presidential election is poised to create a ripple effect that will reach Pakistan’s shores, influencing the country’s security, economy, and diplomatic ties with the global superpower. According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 77 million Americans have already voted, with 42 million in person and 35 million by mail. In addition to choosing the country’s leader, this election, set for November 5, will also shape US foreign policy, particularly with Pakistan.
Harris and Trump’s Contrasting Agendas
Kamala Harris, the current Democratic nominee, and Vice President, aims to be the first female president and a woman of color. Her previous positions include senator, California Attorney General, and San Francisco prosecutor. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president, is running for president again in 2024. Each leader’s attitude can potentially impact the future of US-Pakistan relations, particularly in terms of security cooperation and regional strategy.
Prospects under a Harris Administration
A Kamala Harris presidency is likely to mirror the current diplomatic approach of the Biden administration.
Key Implications of Harris’s Re-election:
– Continuation of Biden’s Policies: Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the current administration’s diplomatic approach, which has avoided pressuring Pakistan over its ties with China while supporting its financial stability via international organizations. Pakistan’s better relations with Washington under Biden, which included a reduced emphasis on defense but a cooperative approach to economic and humanitarian issues, may continue.
– India-Pakistan Dynamics: Harris’s Indian origin and ties to the Indian-American community have generated fears about a potential shift towards India, particularly in terms of defense collaboration. As US-India ties strengthen, Pakistan’s role in Washington’s South Asia policy may be weakened.
Pakistan might need to use flexible diplomacy, strengthen business connections with the Pakistani-American community, and enhance its role in international economic forums.
The Impact of a Trump Presidency
Donald Trump’s presidency was characterized by a transactional approach to foreign policy, particularly in Pakistan, where he focused on eliminating alleged militant safe havens. His administration took bold steps, suspending $1.3 billion in security assistance and restricting educational exchange programs for Pakistani military officers. Interestingly, Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions against Palestine, which could resonate positively with the Muslim community. However, his overall stance on foreign aid and security partnerships has been unfavorable for Pakistan.
Key Implications of Trump’s Re-election:
– Prioritization of U.S. Interests: Trump may prioritize U.S. interests over cooperative diplomacy, potentially affecting Pakistan’s security support and international aid.
– Reduced American Involvement: His cautious view on U.S. engagement in foreign conflicts might reduce American involvement in South Asia, granting Pakistan more autonomy in regional affairs.
Regional and Security Concerns for Pakistan
The stakes are enormous for Pakistan. Pakistan’s economic stability and security have continuously been impacted by U.S.-Pakistan relations. Pakistan’s strategic orientation will be vital in a changing global environment characterized by the U.S.-China rivalry, Russia’s position in Ukraine, and rising tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of the outcome of the election, establishing stronger business and educational linkages with Pakistani-American communities may be crucial to creating a good narrative and retaining U.S. support. Pakistan’s military, which is renowned for its professionalism, will also have to manage these geopolitical changes while maintaining a balance with China and the United States.
In the end, Pakistan’s future will rely on its capacity to deal with these international forces strategically and keep a flexible, well-balanced stance in a multipolar world.