By Aishma Gul
“If we have to go back into Afghanistan, we will go back with force the likes of which the world has never seen,” U.S. President Donald Trump declared at a June 2024 rally in Arizona, doubling down on his unverified claim that China had seized control of Bagram Air Base. Recently, he had asserted, “We were going to get out, but we were going to keep Bagram, not because of Afghanistan but because of China, because it’s exactly one hour away from where China makes its nuclear missiles.” Accusing the Biden administration of relinquishing the strategic asset, Trump added, “And you know who’s occupying it right now? China. Biden gave it up.”
The Taliban countered promptly, with a spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, saying, “Such statements are emotional, baseless and intended to mislead the public. Bagram is and shall remain the property of Afghanistan.” This exchange underscores the high-stakes symbolism of Bagram, a place that has determined the fate of Afghanistan for decades. What makes this airbase a geopolitical lightning rod, and how might its future reshape South Asia’s balance of power?
Bagram Air Base: The Geopolitical Chessboard
Built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, Bagram became the U.S.-NATO command hub in the 2001–2021 Afghan war. Its strategic value is more geographic: 40 miles north of Kabul, but close to the Panjshir Valley and Pakistan’s tribal regions. The base’s two 3,000-meter runways enabled the U.S. to launch 70 per cent of its airstrikes in Afghanistan and accommodated 40,000 personnel at its height. The base’s two runways—capable of accommodating heavy bombers like the B-52—and its proximity to key Afghan cities and the Pakistani border made it a strategic asset.
The Taliban inherited a plundered base with broken infrastructure, disabled surveillance systems and abandoned vehicles after the hasty withdrawal from the U.S. in July 2021.
Trump’s Statement and Its Context
Trump’s June 2024 assertion that Bagram is under Chinese control is unsubstantiated but fits with his larger story of U.S. decline. “They [China] are laughing at us… They took Bagram, now we’re going to have to fight to get it back,” he claimed. Analysts see this as an attempt to galvanize supporters through Cold War-style fears, especially after China signed a 2023 deal to extract oil from the Taliban. But in fact, U.S. officials and satellite imagery of Bagram contradict Trump. There’s no evidence of Chinese military activity there, just occasional Taliban patrols seen near the base.
China’s Calculated Silence and Future Intentions
Though Beijing denies any role, its interest in Bagram is practical:
– Economic Corridors: Bagram is positioned adjacent to the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which could potentially make it a transit hub for Central Asian trade.
– Resource Access: Afghanistan’s $1 trillion of rare-earth metals, including lithium, aligns with China’s green energy goals. A Taliban-China agreement in 2023 permits Chinese firms to tap oil from reserves in the Amu Darya basin.
– Security Buffer: Afghanistan stability keeps Uighur militancy from spilling into Xinjiang.
According to a Taliban official speaking on the condition of anonymity, “Chinese companies have discussed converting Bagram into a regional trade hub, but no military agreements exist” (Firstpost, 2024).
Taliban Sovereignty Gambit
The Taliban’s furious denia of any foreign control over Bagram speaks to their fragile legitimacy. “We will not allow Afghanistan to become a battleground for superpowers,” declared acting Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob in July 2024. Satellite imagery from June 2024 shows that Bagram has little apparent activity, with only one of several runways partially repaired for domestic flights. However, speculation continues because the Taliban rely on Chinese investment for infrastructure projects.
Pakistan’s Security, Economics and Own Sovereignty
Pakistan’s stakes in Bagram’s fate are uniquely complex:
– Scenario 1: Bagram in Chinese Hands
Pros: Pakistan-Pakistan cross-border trade can promote Pakistan’s economy as CPEC expands into Afghanistan.
Cons: Increased militant attacks against Chinese interests (e.g., 2023 Karachi port blast) — risk to Pakistan’s military, straining Pakistan’s security forces. IS-Khorasan has already issued threats against Chinese projects, describing such ventures as ‘colonial projects.’
– Scenario 2: Bagram Under U.S. (If Reclaimed)
Pros: Less cross-border terrorism from TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
Cons: Bilateral ties strained for Pakistan-China and a U.S. mandate to discontinue CPEC.
– Scenario 3: Bagram under Taliban Control
Pros: The status quo allows Pakistan to use its historical ties with the Taliban to its advantage in border security.
Cons: Risk of Afghan soil being used by TTP, which conducted 63% more attacks in KPK in 2023 than in 2022.
The Pakistan military has responded with Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (2024) and has placed 15,000 troops along the Afghan border while dismantling 27 militant cells in KPK this year alone.
Unanswered Questions: Bagram as a Reflection of Global Changes
The controversy invites a deeper consideration
– What does a deserted airbase matter now more than ever?
Bagram’s symbolic weight as a Cold War relic can now be seen in the 21st-century power struggles, where control is no longer defined in terms of boots on the ground but economic affiliations.
– Would Bagram spark a U.S.-China proxy war?
Improbable, as both powers are wary of direct conflict. Instead, it might speed up a form of “shadow competition” through infrastructure deals and diplomatic influence.
– Is Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy future-proof?
With 40% of Balochistan’s population under 14, long-term stability requires addressing youth disillusionment alongside military action. At CIMS Bahawalpur, Pakistan’s COAS General Syed Asim Munir reminded the youth to be self-responsible and focus on their duties. He has repeatedly emphasized the importance of discipline and active participation in nation-building as key components to ensuring a secure future.
Pathways to Stability
Bagram’s transformation, from a Soviet airstrip to an American base and now a symbolic site in Taliban hands, draws attention to the region’s multivalent, and often shifting, power dynamics. Within this context, Pakistan’s security forces have remained relatively measured and proactive, particularly in regions like KPK and Balochistan where immediate security and long-term stability paint a complicated picture. Through the promotion of greater regional engagement and collective action, Pakistan’s leadership seeks to set the groundwork for safeguarding national interests through regional mechanisms in an ever-changing global order.